One Astronomer's Noise

Entries from July 2009

Congratulations, you may be psychic!

July 23, 2009 · 4 Comments

Weekly World News, that bastion of scientific credibility, has reported that 53% of people are psychic, based on a study done at the University of Virginia on the townspeople and students of Charlottesville.

Say what now?

This study was published by the “parapsychology division of the University of Virginia School of Medicine” in the Journal of the American Society for Psychical Research. Although the article does not name specific researchers from the study, the division of which they speak is most likely the Division of Perceptual Studies, founded by Ian Stevenson in 1967. Dr. Stevenson was a psychiatrist and researcher who devoted decades of work to collecting past-life experiences and evidence of reincarnation. Unfortunately, though he carried out this work all over the globe until his retirement in 2002, he did not produce scientifically compelling evidence to back claims of such experiences. I encourage you to read his entry in Bob Carroll’s Skeptic’s Dictionary, which is fascinating and quite thoroughly researched. He also co-founded the Society for Scientific Exploration, which is deserving of a separate post, already in the works and long overdue. (I’ve been busy… yadda yadda…)

Naturally, the UVa library has a subscription to the journal, so I look forward to finding it in the Alderman stacks later this week when I get a chance. Unfortunately, I can’t find a version online, or even an abstract at the moment. According to the article, however, the study was a self-reported survey of 622 participants. Until I get a look at how the participants were selected, it’s hard to say whether this is an accurate cross-section of the American population, as is claimed. (Maybe we are just special?) One researcher is quoted in the article as saying,

50% of America is psychic – the results of this survey confirm this fact.

I’m skeptical that any researcher into the paranormal would make such a sweeping and incorrect statement, especially if they expect to be taken seriously. The lack of a name attached to the quote only encourages my notion that this was made up whole cloth by a “reporter”. At any rate, a self-reporting survey is no way to prove that a phenomenon exists. Serious scientific studies need to be double-blinded and carefully controlled before a claim can be shown to have validity. Participants in this survey report such paranormal experiences as déjà vu, out of body experiences, apparitions, hauntings, and more. Although these may be terrifying to a person in the moment, a more rational explanation is often to be found. A few years ago, a team of neuroscientists reported that they may have found a biological cause for that eerie feeling of déjà vu. Paranormal investigators such as Joe Nickell have found rational explanations for many hauntings and paranormal claims over the decades. Many psychics have stepped up to take James Randi’s Million Dollar Challenge, and none have passed preliminary testing. If half of us were psychic, someone would have noticed by now.

So, this article was published in a cheesy tabloid with a screaming, Vulcan-ish child on the logo. So what? Most people running across this article will snicker and move on. A small percentage, no doubt, will add it to the pile of “evidence” for their already-cherished beliefs in the paranormal. I’m more interested, personally, in what the survey-study itself has to say, and how much more widely it is reported, especially locally.

Muchas gracias to cvillenews.com for the link! Also, kudos to them on the clever title.

Cross-posted at Charlottesville Skeptics.

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Blog on vacation…

July 20, 2009 · 2 Comments

Hey all, it’s been a while again.  I’ve been sloooowly getting things done at work. As Swoopy aptly puts in the latest Skepticality (106),

When I get to talk to scientists, often they are in the lab and they are taking a break from research. What are they doing? They are running samples, they are analyzing data. This is time consuming, not always exciting stuff.

Did I mention there’s a Swoopy fan page over on Facebook? So you can swoon over Swoopy…

But also, I took a brief vacation at Lake Wallenpaupack with Tim and his family.  It was soooo nice to sit around and do nothing for once.  Well, almost nothing. There were two adorable kids to play with (fun noodle fight!), boating, water skiing (or my sad attempt at it), jet skiing, etc. Oh, and a great book to read:

This was one of my $2 finds at a book warehouse in Georgia back in June.  Pope Brock tells the story of one of the greatest quacks in American pseudoscience, John R. Brinkley, and his “goat gland operations” that were all the rage in medicine in the early part of the 20th century.  He was also instrumental in shaping modern political campaigns, music, and marketing in ways that are utterly surprising.  Entertaining and informative, it’s a must-read!

On the way back to Philly, Tim and I made a stop in Bethlehem to see George Hrab play in a nice little restaurant called Starfish Brasserie.  (No, not brassiere, I made that mistake at first, too.) So I didn’t get to TAM but I did enjoy the Maestro’s live show!  And finally met the uber-fabulous and talented MsInformation, aka Donna.  They were both ridiculously sweet and I’m so glad we had a chance to hang out!  I was also treated to fun stories from the Philadelphia Funk Authority by Dale, singer and trombone player.  And, I got to sing along to “Far” from the bar which was just fun.

Sorry for the graininess. He’s “uber-far” as far as my iPhone camera is concerned.

Lucky to bask in her awesomeness.

Finally, Tim and I got our hotel and tickets all set for Dragon*Con, and I’m reeeeeally excited about all the general nerdiness and getting to attend the SkepTrack.  Don’t forget, if you are going to be there, come a day early for the Full Moon for Cancer, put on by the Atlanta Skeptics!  If you are not going to be there, but want to participate and have a love of astronomy, self-proclaimed “Skepchick cabana boy” Christian has a request for you.

I’ve got some lengthy blog posts in the works, they may someday get finished, right? Ooh, script almost done… back to work.

Many thanks to my lovely boy for all the fun adventures we have!

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Correlation, Causation, and Coincidence

July 8, 2009 · 5 Comments

I’ve been running around again.  I’m back to CVille and to work, but before that I was out of town and away from my computer for almost a week, driving to New York, then flying to Georgia, with my “little” brother to get him set up for his new life in grad school. (I use the quotes because the 21-year-old is 6’2, more than a foot taller than me!)  During my travel, I got a little reminder of one of my favorite logical fallacies:

Correlation does not necessarily imply causation.

Detecting baloney with the best of ‘em… Carl Sagan.

This one comes in handy when reading that “studies show that more people with x do y.” Such articles are usually written to give the impression that x causes y, when no such thing can be concluded from the work.  This fallacy can also be used in an argument about anything, and it has of course been parodied in a few places.

So here is my example from my travels.  On June 25th, I had two flights, one from Newark to Atlanta, and then from Atlanta to Valdosta.  This was also the day on which Farrah Fawcett and Michael Jackson passed away.  The news of each one broke while I was in-flight, so I learned of each when I turned my iPhone back on after landing. And I thought, well that was weird, two flights and two highly publicized celebrity deaths!  Surely, strange but a coincidence.  The next Sunday, I had the same flights back, in reverse.  After the first flight, I learned that the news of Billy Mays‘s death had broken while I was in flight.  At this point, it’s safe to say that there was a correlation between my flights and celebrity deaths.  However, is this a good reason for me to miss my next flight, as to prevent another one?

Well, no, I took the last flight (bumped to first class, mind you) without guilt, knowing that I would not be the cause of loss of life in that way.  Just because two things occur simultaneously, without a plausible method for their connection, or other supporting evidence, there is no reason to think that one has caused the other, or even that they have a similar cause.  (Do pirates expel less carbon dioxide? I didn’t think so.)  Well surely, this situation is an amazing coincidence? Okay, but for all of the possible coincidences that *could* occur to all people, all over the world, is it any surprise that a small fraction of them do happen? As a pattern-seeking species, we look for significance in random events, but sometimes we just have to accept that they are random.  Think about that the next time you want to associate one seemingly random occurrence with another, or try to find meaning in life’s coincidences.

For the record, the US soccer team did get beaten by Brazil right before take-off of our last flight.  A small death for some?  Only if looking too hard for patterns.

Cross posted at Charlottesville Skeptics

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