One Astronomer's Noise

…From Michael Blastland at the BBC, a series of articles on how to think critically about the facts reported by the media. Part 5 was noted on Skepchick, and talks about the difference between correlation and causation. This is included in Carl Sagan’s “Baloney Detection Kit” and SGU’s list of Logical Fallacies. Some great conclusions include:

This is one problem with arguments about causality, the belief that any change must have a principal cause, when it may be the result of the many causes that produce nothing more meaningful than random variation.
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The key is not to stop looking for the cause with the first plausible link you find. Keep your imagination restless for other causes, or the possibility of chance, and it will serve you well.

Blastland’s articles also include bad survey questioning, counting, percentages, and averages, and are engagingly written with relevant examples. The next article will be about “Doubt.” Yet another resource for skeptics and critical thinkers all around!

However, we all know that the decline of pirates is responsible for global warming.